Midseason Fantasy Football Strategy: For the Frontrunners

I suppose a congratulations of sorts is in order. We’re halfway through the season and as Charlie Sheen would say, you’re “Winning!”. And you’re not just winning, you’re winning handily. In fact, your fantasy football team is clearly among the top 2-3 teams in your league and there is some considerable distance between you and the rest of the pack. If this doesn’t describe your team, take a look my related fantasy football strategy articles. There should be something for you.

Back to the winners. The crème de la crème. The cream of the crop. The Billy Madison and Happy Gilmore of Adam Sandler movies. I have a few words of warning for you: DON’T BE COMPLACENT. A helpful analogy can be found in real sports. So often, teams with leads in the fourth quarter become overly conservative. They shut down their playbooks, quit moving the football, and end up losing the game. Fantasy is the same way, and I speak from experience. Far more often than not, I have been in your position. However, until recently, my display of league titles has not been nearly as indicative as it should be of my regular season prowess. My fantasy football strategy has evolved over time, and if you’re interested, I will divulge its key components.

As the character of Billy Beane said in the movie Moneyball, “It ultimately doesn’t matter how many games you win if you lose the last game of the season.” Your guiding principle for every move you make or don’t make from here on out should be: Does this give me a better team for the playoffs?

Forget about seeding. At this point, you are going to walk into the playoffs. Unless your league has a cash prize for the regular season champs (most don’t), it does not matter how you are matched up. In standard leagues, four teams make the postseason. To win your league, you have to beat two of the three other playoff teams anyway. There is no point worrying about facing the best or next best team in the first round. In fact, you might be better suited to see your top opponent in the first round if their players have tougher matchups that week.

Continually improve your team. While you like your team, and you should, everyone behind you is making moves to improve their roster. The old adage, “You’re either getting better or you’re getting worse” couldn’t be truer. Following our motto from above, only make moves to give yourself the best possible team during the playoffs (Playoffs are Weeks 15 & 16 in Yahoo and NFL.com Fantasy Leagues, Weeks 14-17 in ESPN, check your league settings if you participate in a different league). The weeks until that point are an afterthought. The following are some general strategies for how to improve your squad. More specific fantasy football strategy and tips on players to pick up, etc are abundant on the internet, and I would suggest sites such as:

Trading deadlines are fast approaching in most fantasy football leagues (November 19 in Yahoo, November 24 in ESPN, and November 25 in NFL.com). As someone at the top who has assets and doesn’t need to make a trade, you have incredible leverage. There are two things to consider when making trades: schedule and a term I refer to as total team value.

-Total Team Value

Depth is great for the regular season. With bye weeks and injuries, having starter caliber players on your bench is huge. But in the playoffs, all those quality players accumulating points in your bench spots is both useless and costly. This is where total team value comes into play.

Total team value (TTV) is the sum of all the points your squad (starters and bench) accrues. It’s like the capital your company might have. That capital or total team value represents all you have to work with in trades. Where total team value can be deceptive is when it comes to winning playoff matchups.

For example, Team A has a TTV of 225 points per week and Team B has a TTV of 180 points per week. Team A has substantially more value, and they are most likely the better regular season team. However, we need the entire picture in order to predict a one game playoff scenario.

In a playoff scenario, Team B has a slight upper hand. The purpose of this example is to demonstrate the importance of building for a one-game scenario as opposed to building for the regular season. Two star fantasy producers (17 + 18 = TTV of 35) for two starting spots is far more valuable than four solid fantasy producers (12+ 11 + 13 + 9 = TTV of 45) for those same two spots.

Take advantage of two for one, three for one, and three for two trades. Look to specifically target teams that are struggling and have many holes to fill. By doing this, not only do you increase the TTV and potency of your starting lineup, but you also open up empty roster spots for the addition of free agents (we will discuss this more later).

Injuries will happen and do need to be factored into your fantasy football strategy. Ideally, you still want to retain one or two solid backups. They should be RB’s or WR’s because the flex position allows them to fill for a number of injuries whereas if you own two great TE’s, your second tight end can only backup one player. Don’t be afraid to use open spots for fantasy star’s handcuffs either.

-Schedule

Before making trades, you want to closely examine player matchups for Weeks 15 & 16 (we will assume standard fantasy playoffs of 15 & 16 for this section, if you are in another format, adjust accordingly). The right matchup can make an average player look great and make a great player look average. The last thing you want is to have your fantasy stud, a guy who has performed all year, matched up across from the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens defenses in Weeks 15 or 16. It’s not fair, but it is what it is. Take advantage of it. It makes trading easier, because you value those players for two weeks, not their entire schedule. A player such as Steven Jackson loses value (Week 15 vs. CIN, Week 16 vs. PIT) while others gain value.

Some quick observations I made:

-The rich get richer. The pass-happy teams of Green Bay, New England, and New Orleans face horribly ranked pass defenses. Through the regular season diversity of players from different teams serves best, but I would load up on as many Packers, Patriots, and Saints as I could.

GB vs. KC(21), CHI(26)

NE vs. DEN(23), MIA(27)

NO vs. MIN(30), ATL(19)

-The poor get kicked in the face. No easy roads for St. Louis and Arizona. Below are their Week 15 & 16 schedules with their opponent’s defensive rankings.

STL vs. CIN(4), PIT(3)

ARI vs. CLE(6), CIN(4)

The best is to do a little research on your own. Check out team defensive stats here: http://www.nfl.com/stats/team. Look at pass or rush depending on the position of your player or the one you hope to trade for. You can also use this nifty tool from Yahoo that shows how specific offensive positions do against each team: http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/pointsagainst.

*A note for those in leagues such as ESPN that have playoffs in Week 17: While the Packers do have savory matchups through the fantasy playoffs, there is a good chance they may be resting starters the last week of the season.

Although you are happy with your team, you cannot stop the search for great fantasy pickups. Players like Jerome Harrison of 2009 and Tim Tebow of 2010 are responsible for countless fantasy playoff upsets. The best way to counter such moves is to acquire these players yourself. As mentioned above, one of the great aspects of making two-for-one style trades is that they open up spots on your roster. Continue to search for players that have the potential to be fantasy breakouts. With a top-notch team already in place, there is no need to use a waiver on players who simply contribute. Save your waiver. Look to use it on a player that has a big-time breakout game (such as Miles Austin a couple years ago) that every expert and casual fantasy owner will know is a “must have”. While others have used their waivers foolishly on a kicker for their bye week or a New England Patriots running back, your waiver priority will be at the top.

This brings me to my final point. When it comes to bye weeks, remember your guiding principle: Does this give me a better team for the playoffs? Do NOT drop a quality player so you can have a kicker or defense when yours is on bye, especially if you are facing an inferior opponent. Unless you have an open spot and there are no high upside free agents out there, go without. The few points you could have accrued will not matter in the grand scheme of things.

I hope you can use these tips to your advantage. And remember, when it comes to fantasy football strategy, the immortal words of Ricky Bobby ring true, “If you’re not first, you’re last”.